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Predict.ai

Risk & insurance

Fraud volume forecasting

Forecast fraud pressure by channel, geography, payment method, and attack pattern before queues spike.

Sound familiar?

  • Attack waves that bury the review queue overnight
  • Analyst staffing sized for average days, not attack days
  • Losses discovered in the chargeback report weeks later
Target: Fraud attemptsHorizon: Hours–8 weeks
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Fraud attempts

attempts / hour · Live forecast

Updated
8.4K600HISTORYFORECASTReview-team capacityAttack waveHourly or dailyHours–8 weeks ahead
Median forecast with uncertainty bandCrosses review-team capacity

Driver

Transaction volume

Driver

Login failures

Driver

Chargebacks

Forecast horizon

Hours–8 weeks

Refresh cadence

Hourly or daily

Built for

Fraud operations · Risk analytics

What you can predict

One forecast can answer several operational questions.

Model future fraud volume and loss exposure from transaction activity, attack indicators, campaign timing, account behavior, and external threat signals.

01

Fraud attempts

02

Expected loss

03

Review queue volume

04

Attack-wave timing

Questions teams need answered

  • When will review demand peak?
  • Which channel drives the increase?
  • How much loss is exposed?
  • Is the current spike expected or anomalous?

Data that can improve the forecast

Transaction volumeLogin failuresChargebacksCampaignsThreat signalsAccount changes

Start with the history you already have. Add internal or external drivers only when backtesting shows that they improve the forecast on held-out periods.

What-if planning

Test a change before committing to it.

Compare a proposed change with the current baseline. See the expected direction, timing, range, and the assumptions behind the result.

Tighten a decision threshold

Compare expected loss and review volume

Transaction volume surges

Estimate fraud pressure and queue demand

Fraud attempts

attempts / hour · Scenario comparison

Updated

What if

Tighten a decision threshold?

8.4K600HISTORYFORECASTReview-team capacityAttack waveHourly or dailyHours–8 weeks ahead
BaselineTighter threshold
Crosses review-team capacity

Driver

Transaction volume

Driver

Login failures

Driver

Chargebacks

From forecast to action

Keep the people making the decision in the loop.

01 · MONITOR

Forecast continuously

Refresh fraud attempts on a hourly or daily cadence as new data arrives.

02 · NOTIFY

Alert on meaningful changes

  • Expected fraud loss crosses tolerance
  • Review volume exceeds team capacity

03 · DECIDE

Put the result to work

Analyst staffingRule thresholdsCustomer frictionInvestigation priority

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All solutions

Build a fraud volume forecast with your data.

Start with sample data, connect your own history, or talk with us about your target, horizon, and production requirements.

Start forecastingContact sales