Fundamentals

Nowcasting

Nowcasting estimates the present (or the very next tick) using faster series, because the official number has not landed yet. It is a forecast with a horizon of 'this afternoon,' not next quarter.

GDP nowcasts are the famous ones. In ops, it is 'today's sales as of 2pm, inferred from traffic and a partial POS file.' The decision is staffing the evening, not the annual plan.

Nowcasts love leading and coincident indicators. They hate delayed official numbers used as if they were live. If the target arrives three days late, you are already nowcasting whether you say so or not.

The horizon is ugly: often hours. Treat it as a different contract from the weekly buy, or you will mash two jobs into one sad model.