Data & drivers

Leading indicator

A leading indicator moves before the target. Clicks before orders, bookings before departures, parts in before units out. Same-day correlation is a mirror; the lag is the product.

Find leads by testing lagged versions on a backtest, not by staring at a correlated heatmap. Heatmaps do not know about time's arrow.

Leads rot. A media mix that led last year can go coincident when everyone bids on the same keyword. Re-score. Retire.