Retail & consumer
Promotion performance forecasting
Estimate promotion lift, product substitution, margin impact, and the demand that remains after a campaign ends.
Sound familiar?
- Campaign lift guessed before and argued about after
- Stock that can't support the promotion it's meant to power
- Margin given away to demand that was coming anyway
Incremental sales
incremental units / day · Live forecast
Driver
Discount depth
Driver
Media spend
Driver
Placement
Forecast horizon
1–12 weeks
Refresh cadence
Daily
Built for
Merchandising · Commercial planning
What you can predict
One forecast can answer several operational questions.
Use prior campaigns, discount depth, placement, media support, availability, competitor activity, and customer behavior to forecast promotion outcomes before and during execution.
Incremental unit sales
Revenue and margin lift
Product substitution
Post-promotion demand
Questions teams need answered
- How much incremental demand will the promotion create?
- Which stores and products will respond most?
- Will stock support the expected lift?
- How quickly will demand return to baseline?
Data that can improve the forecast
Start with the history you already have. Add internal or external drivers only when backtesting shows that they improve the forecast on held-out periods.
What-if planning
Test a change before committing to it.
Compare a proposed change with the current baseline. See the expected direction, timing, range, and the assumptions behind the result.
Increase discount depth
Compare volume, revenue, and margin outcomes
Move the campaign by one week
Estimate overlap with seasonality and competing events
Incremental sales
incremental units / day · Scenario comparison
What if
Increase discount depth?
Driver
Discount depth
Driver
Media spend
Driver
Placement
From forecast to action
Keep the people making the decision in the loop.
01 · MONITOR
Forecast continuously
Refresh incremental sales on a daily cadence as new data arrives.
02 · NOTIFY
Alert on meaningful changes
- Observed lift falls below the expected range
- Inventory cannot support forecast demand
03 · DECIDE
Put the result to work
Build a promotion performance forecast with your data.
Start with sample data, connect your own history, or talk with us about your target, horizon, and production requirements.