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What-if analysis

Also called scenario analysis

What-if analysis is a second forecast under a change you control — price, promo, capacity. You compare paths from the same model, not two opinions in a spreadsheet.

The lever must be an input the model actually has. Asking 'what if demand were higher' is not a scenario; it is a wish. Asking 'what if we cut price 8% and keep the learned price response' is a scenario.

Hold everything else still, or you will not know what moved the path. And keep the interval: a point-versus-point comparison pretends you know more than you do.

The world moved. The model did not.

Stale forecast versus actualslast fitactuals after a break
A step-change in demand (lime) while last quarter's champion (gray) keeps drawing the old slope. That gap is staleness. Cadence and a watchdog baseline catch it before the monthly review.

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Related terms

CovariatePrediction interval

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